Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49be5ba068f20a2d1a1ac6909e85a2002b3da601a80901d22412c08b3b276a06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,548$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 762.16$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 615.33$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 527.7$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 525.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.7 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 386.34$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 350$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 306.26$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30c…ebb2backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 36c | 276.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 229.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 225.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 41c | 207$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 189.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 168.18$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 156.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 149.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 135.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 132.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 128.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 127.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 125.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 60c | 111.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 102.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 102.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 46c | 99.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed No | 62c | 93.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 90.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 87.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 42c | 82.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 38c | 68.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 68.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 66.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 59.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 59.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 56.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 34c | 56.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 55.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 54.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 51.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 55c | 50.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 44.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 42.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 42c | 38.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 59c | 37.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 33c | 35.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 35.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 35.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 35.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 49c | 34.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 33.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 32.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 32.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 29.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 64c | 27.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 26.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 59c | 24.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 24.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 22.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 71c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 67c | 16.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 106°F or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 104-105°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.