Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd872a6767b5cf8d89625ea65cef82bbebae55cda1a8146d3e8fdc0a9d5a1a172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 1c | 3,268$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 1,102$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 32c | 349.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 297.87$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 287.38$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 262.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 229.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 210.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 170.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 25c | 161.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 8c | 157.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 139.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 125.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 119.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 118.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 116.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 111.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 107.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 101.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 25c | 79.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 77.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 58c | 69.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 31c | 63.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 76c | 56.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 55.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 51.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 50.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32a…e349backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 47.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 47.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 47.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 25c | 47.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 43.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 42.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 40.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 38c | 36.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 59c | 35.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 34.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 32.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 54c | 31.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 26.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 24.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 57c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 80c | 21.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 49c | 21.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 74c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 18.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 66c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 106°F or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 104-105°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.