Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Oliver Crawford vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a5ffa82ac7dd3cb2e2623e266645865b8afe4ed72af59900d37d22b3ab020e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aguilarof Crawford, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2718…c9c4backed Crawford | 0c | 8,161$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Aguilar | 55c | 1,816$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.86 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Crawford | 35c | 1,126$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.87 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Aguilar | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Crawford | 36c | 631.55$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed Crawford | 51c | 582.96$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Crawford | 6c | 558$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Crawford | 15c | 511.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Crawford | 41c | 427.9$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aguilar | 73c | 337.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Crawford | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Crawford | 42c | 207.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Aguilar | 60c | 185$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Crawford | 14c | 176.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Crawford | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aguilar | 74c | 131.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Crawford | 44c | 114.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Aguilar | 61c | 81.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Aguilar | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3d…660cbacked Aguilar | 60c | 65.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Crawford | 41c | 61.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Crawford | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Aguilar | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Crawford | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Aguilar | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Aguilar | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 348 | 51.1%178 W · 170 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed Aguilar | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 101 | 62.4%63 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Aguilar | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Crawford | 52c | 24.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.