MLB · resolved market
Will the New York Mets make the 2025 MLB playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a649c98d756a83bf34547fb3216d7e1a307204bf3ee40d18f9620f3646e490a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked No | 25c | 448$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.3 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 52c | 260.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 75c | 225.04$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…2287backed Yes | 74c | 202$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 28c | 90.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02f…cd24backed Yes | 67c | 52.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 78c | 18.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 70c | 17.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New York Mets make the 2025 MLB playoffs?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the 2025 MLB playoffs?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Chicago Cubs make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Detroit Tigers make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Houston Astros make the 2025 MLB playoffs?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the New York Yankees make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the San Diego Padres make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Mariners make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Texas Rangers make the 2025 MLB playoffs?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.