Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac7f67809861259ee4e34b7e86d1e11eb24401865249aa47d7975290eeea129
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 683.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 403.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 24c | 388.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 13c | 333.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 37c | 263.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 196.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 15c | 183.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 170.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 28c | 161.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 137.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 16c | 134.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Yes | 8c | 132.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 71c | 132.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 101.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 93.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 25c | 74.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 28c | 69.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 65.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 32c | 63.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 17c | 62.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 57.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 26c | 54.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 50.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 48.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 35c | 45.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 32.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 41c | 31.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 66c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 80c | 30.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 80c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 74c | 29.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 71c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 23.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 19.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 74c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.