Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdcdfb690d19ac6ede0bd8093dd12b43cbdd0ef1fbb91be4b22319edd05af029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 2c | 7,326$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.41 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 315.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 76c | 277.69$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 206.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 152.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 34c | 125.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 111.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 110.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 23c | 103.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 100.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 76c | 96.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 13c | 80.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 29c | 71.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 67.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 75c | 65.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 17c | 61.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 24c | 57.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 38c | 50.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 50.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…093dbacked Yes | 40c | 50.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 38c | 49.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 29c | 36.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 34.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…cdd4backed Yes | 34c | 32.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 30.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 77c | 29.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 26.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 23.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 73c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.