Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf776238b6cfbc683512c9d929c1890b9a4945841a2ff5d0814a89b204d948263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 3c | 808.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 19c | 523.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 17c | 386.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 66c | 238.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 70c | 204.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 75c | 198.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 36c | 172.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 45c | 160.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 62c | 153.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 138.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 116.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 48c | 100.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 98.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 42c | 95.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 93.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 66c | 76.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 38c | 74.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad33…0cebbacked Yes | 80c | 73.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 58c | 68.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 67.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 67.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 59.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 49c | 58.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 42c | 56.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 55.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 70c | 48.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 45.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 48c | 45.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 67c | 45.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 26c | 44.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 65c | 43.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 41.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 72c | 35.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 33c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 61c | 34.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 43c | 33.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 39c | 31.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 39c | 27.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 27.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 57c | 24.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 56c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 65c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 67c | 14.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.