CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae07da709287fa019eb66b6f7708848b9dc5c670287a129c74b4f8070f3ef1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed RUSTEC | 1c | 2,278$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…102abacked RUSTEC | 48c | 368.25$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.68 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…22c3backed RUSTEC | 57c | 321$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.06 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed RUSTEC | 59c | 306.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Ursa | 34c | 288.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…9723backed RUSTEC | 65c | 237.05$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 211 | 35.5%75 W · 136 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked RUSTEC | 37c | 198$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Ursa | 67c | 197.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fa…26d9backed RUSTEC | 54c | 185.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Ursa | 52c | 172.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Ursa | 30c | 167$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RUSTEC | 63c | 156.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RUSTEC | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 27c | 117$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ursa | 29c | 78.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RUSTEC | 61c | 77.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…be70backed RUSTEC | 44c | 76.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed RUSTEC | 63c | 67.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked RUSTEC | 50c | 67.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 366 | 45.6%167 W · 199 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…eb73backed Ursa | 50c | 67.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed RUSTEC | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed RUSTEC | 50c | 61.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 664 | 36.6%243 W · 421 L | -35.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed RUSTEC | 65c | 60.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed RUSTEC | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a6…602fbacked RUSTEC | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked RUSTEC | 70c | 52.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RUSTEC | 43c | 44.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ursa | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked RUSTEC | 61c | 37.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed RUSTEC | 41c | 31.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ursa | 38c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Ursa | 48c | 26.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 217 | 55.8%121 W · 96 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked RUSTEC | 42c | 25.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Ursa | 56c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RUSTEC | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageRUSTEC won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 2 WinnerRUSTEC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.