CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a63dbd9a1f8e7f20024e672ec0da30426a43170023a53b826e61c790055fafb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RUSTECof Ursa, RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf424…9723backed RUSTEC | 45c | 3,051$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.34 | 211 | 35.5%75 W · 136 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked Ursa | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Ursa | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Ursa | 48c | 796.1$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.06 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RUSTEC | 50c | 595.72$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Ursa | 57c | 563$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.79 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed RUSTEC | 43c | 250$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RUSTEC | 43c | 187.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked RUSTEC | 45c | 184.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RUSTEC | 52c | 184.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed RUSTEC | 56c | 158.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 569 | 38.1%217 W · 352 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed RUSTEC | 38c | 133.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ba…7786backed RUSTEC | 75c | 132.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Ursa | 22c | 129.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 602 | 32.4%195 W · 407 L | -49.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RUSTEC | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 2,393 | 46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked RUSTEC | 44c | 91.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ursa | 22c | 88.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked RUSTEC | 68c | 84.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 34c | 83.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…6b31backed Ursa | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ursa | 33c | 69.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed RUSTEC | 52c | 62.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed RUSTEC | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Ursa | 60c | 55.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Ursa | 40c | 46.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RUSTEC | 60c | 45.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ursa | 36c | 45.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Ursa | 41c | 32.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…b2ddbacked RUSTEC | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageRUSTEC won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.