Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae5b56ac056571af0e8dccf47e996efea949978b874ed281d3d1cd258651f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 2,983$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.56 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 41c | 2,449$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.89 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 34c | 1,761$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.85 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…f4ecbacked Yes | 69c | 486.04$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 61c | 207.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d8…a180backed Yes | 24c | 204.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 46c | 189.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 61c | 150.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 77c | 137$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 127.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 57c | 113.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ea46backed Yes | 48c | 107.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 20c | 75.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 28c | 54.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 27c | 42.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 74c | 38.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 74c | 38.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 59c | 38.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed Yes | 68c | 24.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a8…82e1backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.