Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9886fc297d24a60fe84991f3d20911449f8deff82cdad22904082f01167bf842
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 43c | 11,711$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,710.51 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…8661backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 39c | 5,000$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.02 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 2,946$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.56 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 51c | 2,074$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.32 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 56c | 1,750$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.59 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked No | 41c | 971.3$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Yes | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 50c | 687$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.81 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed No | 49c | 485$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 57c | 436.08$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.41 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 341.39$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.83 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 52c | 242.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 43c | 233.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 59c | 210$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…306fbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 30c | 178.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 55c | 165.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 58c | 139.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 58c | 139.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 41c | 131.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 58c | 122.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Yes | 55c | 122.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 56c | 117.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 49c | 116$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Yes | 59c | 111.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed Yes | 56c | 106.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 37c | 106.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 54c | 103$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 58c | 93.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 55c | 93.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…7b25backed Yes | 60c | 89.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 50c | 87.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 51c | 79.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 56c | 69.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 51c | 69.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 54c | 66.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 60c | 63.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 39c | 54.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 54c | 49.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Yes | 52c | 43.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 49c | 41.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Yes | 53c | 39.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Yes | 39c | 32.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 38c | 31.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 52c | 25.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…b083backed Yes | 49c | 21.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Yes | 52c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 73c | 21.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 51c | 19.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Yes | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.