La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Murcia CF vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af29b0f62f7e5b50a433553ca125684f936a9796b47869de35b493c17daa14c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,231$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 77c | 642.4$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | +21.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 16c | 245.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 12c | 222.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 206.47$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 21c | 164$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked No | 79c | 149.54$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…4ef0backed Yes | 15c | 119.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Yes | 22c | 117$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Yes | 20c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Yes | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed No | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 77c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 219 | 57.5%126 W · 93 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Murcia CF vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
- Will Real Murcia CF win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.