Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b074159a55b2449ce5ed3c76f34d41d7a20a0985a26a065008ee98378b003c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 6,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 13c | 796.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 4c | 709.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 77c | 613.03$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 10c | 476.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 19c | 467.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 440.42$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…2992backed No | 11c | 249.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 46c | 248.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 29c | 223.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 60c | 201.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 54c | 201.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 18c | 145.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 20c | 143.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 127.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 42c | 111.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 10c | 107.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 107.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 24c | 102.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 98.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 92.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 92.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 13c | 91.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 88.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 46c | 76.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697c…ddcebacked No | 15c | 70.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 78c | 61.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 51c | 59.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 57.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 62c | 53.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 52.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed No | 28c | 49.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 25c | 48.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 24c | 48.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 40c | 47.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 29c | 47.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 46.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 62c | 40.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 79c | 40.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 43c | 39.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 49c | 39.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 62c | 38.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…7553backed No | 60c | 38.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 51c | 37.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 35.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 77c | 34.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 33.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 32.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 41c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 38c | 26.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…d85cbacked Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…9b48backed Yes | 45c | 22.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 48c | 20.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 69c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 66c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 64c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.