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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,662 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No14c731.12$102 inLost-$102.3612,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8699…f6bebacked Yes31c560.81$175 inWon+$386.149440.4%38 W · 56 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+51.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes10c507.6$51 inWon+$456.843,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9752…62bebacked Yes5c320.3$16 inWon+$304.123834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+66.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No25c266.74$67 inLost-$67.0690829.2%265 W · 643 L-21.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes26c258.83$67 inWon+$192.113,42631.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L-38.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No9c225$19 inLost-$19.23,12661.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L-30.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No15c125$19 inLost-$18.81,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No14c109.8$16 inLost-$15.711,45152.3%759 W · 692 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No14c106.43$15 inLost-$14.92,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes17c105.97$18 inWon+$87.8323442.7%100 W · 134 L+18.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+34.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c103$40 inLost-$39.515,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6674…7efbbacked Yes18c97.19$18 inWon+$79.314233.3%14 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No19c81.2$16 inLost-$15.622,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No73c66.27$48 inLost-$48.0949038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07de…d541backed Yes51c60.33$31 inWon+$29.623429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37f…28bebacked Yes19c60.18$12 inWon+$48.644440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c60$41 inLost-$40.584,62758.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L-114.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c60$46 inLost-$46.335,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c59.45$27 inLost-$26.632,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes75c53.35$40 inWon+$13.3514161%86 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No51c52.88$27 inLost-$27.172,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes57c52.34$30 inWon+$22.3417231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No21c52.12$11 inLost-$10.862,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No60c43.52$26 inLost-$26.122,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaef…d242backed Yes25c40$10 inWon+$303256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No61c38.85$24 inLost-$23.791,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes50c33.28$17 inWon+$16.621,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No59c31.86$19 inLost-$18.7461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No37c30$11 inLost-$11.288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No55c30$17 inLost-$16.51,30054.2%704 W · 596 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes48c26.89$13 inWon+$13.9199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No62c24.9$15 inLost-$15.3742049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes73c24.32$18 inWon+$6.4720352.2%106 W · 97 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes79c24$19 inWon+$5.0426466.7%176 W · 88 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes74c23.26$17 inWon+$5.992,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes75c16$12 inWon+$440871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb619…91e2backed No71c15$11 inLost-$10.64746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.