NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Nuggets Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b176f7eef38695c38208e3a29df4e794ac1cdb7a60012b369fc5f1c4793de2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Lakers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Lakers | 5c | 9,225$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Lakers | 4c | 5,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.86 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Lakers | 14c | 3,763$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.62 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…fbfabacked Lakers | 3c | 3,422$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…ce29backed Nuggets | 78c | 2,522$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Lakers | 8c | 1,157$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed Lakers | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Lakers | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…75b6backed Nuggets | 78c | 899.98$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Lakers | 23c | 829.48$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.78 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Nuggets | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Nuggets | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Lakers | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked Nuggets | 77c | 70.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Nuggets | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.