TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
CA Sarmientoof CS Independiente Rivadavia, CA Sarmiento
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,565 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed CS Independiente Rivadavia9c4,639$408 inLost-$408.332,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed CS Independiente Rivadavia15c1,554$231 inLost-$230.5815045.3%68 W · 82 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed CS Independiente Rivadavia16c734.31$117 inLost-$117.491,65150.6%836 W · 815 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed CS Independiente Rivadavia15c333.25$50 inLost-$49.996543.1%28 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed CS Independiente Rivadavia16c299.39$48 inLost-$47.6219711.2%22 W · 175 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia16c281.61$45 inLost-$45.061,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked CS Independiente Rivadavia15c199.95$30 inLost-$29.9941654.3%226 W · 190 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia14c160.53$23 inLost-$22.671,66851.7%863 W · 805 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed CS Independiente Rivadavia17c136$23 inLost-$22.8455946%257 W · 302 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9851…c31dbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia18c93.72$17 inLost-$16.87944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed CS Independiente Rivadavia16c75.83$12 inLost-$12.1364633.1%214 W · 432 L-24.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed CS Independiente Rivadavia15c69$10 inLost-$10.3529653%157 W · 139 L+1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.