South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x886deb4b81bd36c87077775dbd4f20fa83f9e699f05372281214e00a07400503
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 39c | 3,846$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 3,014$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.54 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 74c | 2,721$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.29 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Under | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 42c | 1,653$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 42c | 1,274$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.31 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 8c | 1,201$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…2d23backed Over | 7c | 1,166$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 39c | 1,157$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.13 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 1,111$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.17 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 46c | 1,089$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.45 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked Over | 6c | 1,070$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 30c | 1,062$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.47 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 34c | 1,041$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.6 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 993.52$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.44 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 60c | 934.45$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.67 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 39c | 847.27$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.33 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 79c | 815.23$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Under | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 77c | 549.9$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 54c | 542.59$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.59 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 67c | 367.82$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.79 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…72a0backed Over | 4c | 358.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 39c | 270.54$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Under | 61c | 216.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +26%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Under | 62c | 214.93$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 67c | 208.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 202.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 65c | 200.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 70c | 193.14$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 42c | 154.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 63c | 149.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 63c | 137.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 130.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…ab54backed Under | 62c | 127.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 41c | 122.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 116.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 64c | 113.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 66c | 111.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Under | 62c | 111.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…32e0backed Over | 40c | 100.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 63c | 80.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 40c | 73.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 39c | 54.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Over | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked Over | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…4669backed Over | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…f153backed Over | 40c | 45.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed Over | 33c | 41.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 64c | 40.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 76c | 40.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 53c | 40.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1c…d47dbacked Under | 76c | 38.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…b936backed Under | 62c | 37.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 62c | 35.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 60c | 34.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Under | 62c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked Under | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 52c | 27.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 39c | 25.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Under | 68c | 22.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…f9b0backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…e295backed Under | 73c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: CS Independiente Rivadavia O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-2.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)CA Sarmiento won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.