UFC · resolved market
Valenzuela vs. Oliveira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b370e3beeae6b792032fbfc356f22e5880e54d1b38538caa48ab86f2a6ebf28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oliveiraof Valenzuela, Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Valenzuela | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Valenzuela | 25c | 957.33$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.83 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Valenzuela | 27c | 944.4$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.57 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Valenzuela | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Oliveira | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Oliveira | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Oliveira | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Oliveira | 79c | 264.62$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Oliveira | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Oliveira | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Oliveira | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Valenzuela | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Oliveira | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Oliveira | 74c | 56.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Oliveira | 69c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…c0d3backed Oliveira | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valenzuela vs. Oliveirathis page
- Kwon vs. DiazDiaz won
- Nufttillaev vs. LekaLeka won
- Rahiki vs. MulumbaRahiki won
- Schultz vs. MingajSchultz won
- Vidal vs. RodriguesRodrigues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.