UFC · resolved market
Schultz vs. Mingaj
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e74bdc9f796e6a694072a35d97331c3fffe155872cd88157a0b82a521772a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Schultzof Schultz, Mingaj
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mingaj | 0c | 26,451$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a85fbacked Schultz | 66c | 7,479$4,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Mingaj | 34c | 6,172$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.36 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Mingaj | 32c | 1,998$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Mingaj | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Schultz | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Schultz | 66c | 825.76$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.76 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Mingaj | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mingaj | 36c | 560$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Schultz | 64c | 560$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Schultz | 66c | 236.6$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Schultz | 66c | 151.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Mingaj | 36c | 140.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Mingaj | 37c | 118.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Schultz | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Schultz | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…2d40backed Mingaj | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Schultz | 64c | 70.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Schultz | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Mingaj | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Schultz | 57c | 69.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Schultz | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Schultz | 62c | 58.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Schultz | 66c | 42.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Schultz | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Schultz | 66c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Schultz vs. Mingajthis page
- Kwon vs. DiazDiaz won
- Nufttillaev vs. LekaLeka won
- Rahiki vs. MulumbaRahiki won
- Valenzuela vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- Vidal vs. RodriguesRodrigues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.