UFC · resolved market
Nufttillaev vs. Leka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad0bfa01a6ea218465dba4454f8fea2c2f065160d61b340b05834e9a01e3dcd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lekaof Nufttillaev, Leka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Nufttillaev | 39c | 1,208$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.72 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Nufttillaev | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Nufttillaev | 37c | 999.97$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Leka | 61c | 778.69$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.69 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Nufttillaev | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Nufttillaev | 40c | 553.18$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Leka | 57c | 474.22$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Leka | 63c | 450$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Leka | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Leka | 56c | 363.59$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.65 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Leka | 54c | 308.8$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Nufttillaev | 46c | 308.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Nufttillaev | 42c | 299.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Leka | 36c | 252.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.58 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Nufttillaev | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Nufttillaev | 69c | 214.25$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 45cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Leka | 63c | 174.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Leka | 62c | 157.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Leka | 60c | 156.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nufttillaev | 17c | 152$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Leka | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Leka | 60c | 50.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Leka | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Leka | 56c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nufttillaev vs. Lekathis page
- Kwon vs. DiazDiaz won
- Rahiki vs. MulumbaRahiki won
- Schultz vs. MingajSchultz won
- Valenzuela vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- Vidal vs. RodriguesRodrigues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.