NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b3ab2bdcf67fc7d3040f27f5b9297b6c1bd8ef8519bd888e66f1a10668062c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Lightning, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Islanders | 62c | 4,059$2,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.92 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Lightning | 39c | 3,333$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.87 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Islanders | 61c | 2,967$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.09 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Islanders | 55c | 1,089$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.83 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lightning | 37c | 478$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 38c | 442.62$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Islanders | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Islanders | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Islanders | 63c | 181.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Islanders | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Islanders | 66c | 159.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Lightning | 34c | 159.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Lightning | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Lightning | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…7d56backed Lightning | 38c | 87.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Islanders | 61c | 80.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lightning | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Lightning | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lightning | 38c | 41.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Lightning | 36c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Islanders | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Islanders | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…66c2backed Lightning | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Islanders | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Islanders | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. LightningIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.