TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Islanders vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Islandersof Islanders, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,712 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e04…564dbacked Islanders38c30,072$11,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,629.451,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lightning62c25,000$15,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,499.9942552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lightning62c15,823$9,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,810.5638748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Islanders42c13,067$5,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,584.161,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Islanders38c12,785$4,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,923.7588151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Islanders43c10,180$4,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,801.1813553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Lightning59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Islanders38c9,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,58086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Lightning58c5,824$3,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,377.8822550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Lightning63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.9727548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Lightning62c4,474$2,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,767.4762249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Lightning58c4,034$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9915954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Lightning60c4,000$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3907546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Lightning18c3,746$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.3227143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Lightning57c3,333$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.8122546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Lightning58c3,186$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.8864242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning58c2,896$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.992,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning47c2,896$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.291,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning60c2,859$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.8997651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Lightning1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning56c2,220$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.0221755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Islanders44c2,199$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.4458841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Islanders38c2,130$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.31,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Lightning59c2,062$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.7645955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Islanders40c2,028$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.5122150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Lightning60c1,921$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.4648452.3%253 W · 231 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning60c1,903$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.921,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Islanders38c1,881$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.891,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Islanders42c1,851$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.1157453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Islanders42c1,667$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.664440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Lightning57c1,637$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.6424749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning59c1,493$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.391,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning27c1,408$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.742,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Islanders48c1,246$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.3975251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e1…c98abacked Islanders44c1,234$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.09825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Islanders53c1,225$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.723,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning27c1,071$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.062,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lightning59c1,060$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.041,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Lightning57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Islanders43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57034845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Islanders42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58032451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Islanders43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57031851.9%165 W · 153 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Lightning57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Lightning59c999.99$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.995952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Islanders52c862.43$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.6995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Islanders42c800$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46435349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Islanders37c786.86$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.7230152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning59c750$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.751,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Islanders55c750$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.532744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Islanders43c732.56$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.5614148.9%69 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Lightning58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40019353.9%104 W · 89 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning40c647.76$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.2299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Islanders37c625$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.7525045.2%113 W · 137 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Islanders44c563.93$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.86639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning56c555.43$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.0432251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning58c537.48$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.741,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning62c514.68$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Lightning61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Lightning61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30511254.5%61 W · 51 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Lightning57c447.08$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.985837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Islanders43c444$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0831148.2%150 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Islanders37c405.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4169142.8%296 W · 395 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e7…1f62backed Islanders37c405.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4125050.4%126 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Islanders43c380$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.414245.1%64 W · 78 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Lightning54c369.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015839.9%63 W · 95 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Lightning61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Lightning64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008360.2%50 W · 33 L+7.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Islanders37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Islanders40c299.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7543944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Islanders42c288.78$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4993953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Islanders37c280.53$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7348748.3%235 W · 252 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Islanders44c272.73$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7378443.8%343 W · 441 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Islanders38c270$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.420446.6%95 W · 109 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Islanders38c270$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.447051.5%242 W · 228 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Islanders38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.1620643.2%89 W · 117 L-0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Islanders46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13572448.3%350 W · 374 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Islanders45c240.63$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.414831.3%15 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b8…5cf9backed Islanders43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.563545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Islanders44c230$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.862447.3%295 W · 329 L+0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983a…02adbacked Islanders44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.273348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…f035backed Islanders44c221.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Lightning59c215.98$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.911,53051.7%791 W · 739 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Lightning25c213.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8160141.9%252 W · 349 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac00…aa5ebacked Islanders37c208$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…4854backed Islanders37c208$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d6…38a1backed Islanders37c208$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc843…6303backed Lightning63c206$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18d…9915backed Lightning63c204$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf7c…7999backed Lightning63c204$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x571c…236ebacked Lightning63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Islanders41c200$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6635245.2%159 W · 193 L-19.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c75…9148backed Lightning63c196$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa928…f58fbacked Islanders37c196$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6880…1073backed Lightning63c196$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…328abacked Islanders37c194$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x191d…2f32backed Islanders37c192$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Lightning58c190$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.231257.4%179 W · 133 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lightning53c176$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9561848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Islanders70c175$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.53964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.