Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b67b70746b851a3a7d6ebaae0836e602302e8684bdab86b90cac9b216b20152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 12c | 276.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 23c | 272.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 25c | 164.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 77c | 137.66$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 118.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 111.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…c72cbacked No | 77c | 97.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked No | 77c | 97.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 92.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 27c | 89.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked Yes | 28c | 82.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 66.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 64.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 57.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 48.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187c…31afbacked No | 75c | 39.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…1718backed No | 76c | 29.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 78c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 78c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 75c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.