Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa997f86b1b2cdef65ba40beb9cbf8e7813286ccf64be33a04b6c8e2615c8d89c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,405$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 7c | 1,049$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 32c | 969.81$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.56 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 665$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 402.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 32c | 341.11$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 299.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 236.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 35c | 235.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 63c | 192$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 171.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 67c | 141$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 136.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 68c | 130.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 64c | 120.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 34c | 117.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 113$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 68c | 109.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 102$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 99.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 69c | 96.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…eddfbacked Yes | 48c | 95.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 92.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 29c | 80.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 74.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92ebbacked Yes | 27c | 73.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 28c | 72.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 70.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 30c | 60.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 56.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 52.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 49.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 47.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 45.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 55c | 43.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 43.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 42c | 42.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 64c | 39.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 38.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 38.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 34.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 69c | 28.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 69c | 27.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 74c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 64c | 26.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 70c | 24.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 71c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 68c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…eaa5backed Yes | 73c | 22.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed Yes | 69c | 17.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.