Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b9cb0587915d2d72936043d2dd0f8eb49f90875765cee30ff683c409f734815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 1,778$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.9 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 57c | 1,430$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.92 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 44c | 1,374$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.26 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Yes | 44c | 825$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 56c | 679.39$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.18 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 13c | 351.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 48c | 332$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 59c | 322$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 53c | 273$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 47c | 253.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…7deabacked Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 54c | 176$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 51c | 146.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 144.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 51c | 116.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 64c | 114.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 42c | 111.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed No | 48c | 99.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…7358backed No | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 39c | 71.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.