Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc18d7484c8b12725d96f28f7be9b99c3e0dc3d6496bea710bf6ab7f0da647c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 3,947$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.94 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 3,053$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.2 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 31c | 594.57$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 28c | 583$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 26c | 571.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e349backed Yes | 34c | 491.56$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 26c | 343.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 26c | 334.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 69c | 273$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 72c | 214$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…7deabacked Yes | 44c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 17c | 136.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 14c | 100.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d50…5302backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 32c | 99.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 42.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.