Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfa014c32f766a1b5b43ad13d32324a40b033537795efa14c7ca92580f623ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 76c | 658.17$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.71 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 639.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 42c | 542.05$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.91 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 7c | 489.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.06 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 447.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 283.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 245.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 66c | 243.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 238.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 163$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 16c | 162$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 123.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 80c | 118.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 118.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…85d5backed No | 42c | 94.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 26c | 94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 52c | 77.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 26c | 69.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 61.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 59.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 68c | 58.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 79c | 46.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 32.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 62c | 31.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 67c | 27.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 58c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 18.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 16.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 65c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.