Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c04baa48be915b38197e3e2e84139ed542bb179da0e5095bf90e56059039ad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 491.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 303.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 33c | 281.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 242.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 61c | 240.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 234.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 209$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 197.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 178.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 70c | 144.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 115.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 56c | 112.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 21c | 109.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 106.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 11c | 100.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 94.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 80c | 92.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 34c | 91.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 83.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 83.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 15c | 81.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 57c | 74.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 70.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 44c | 70.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…b2b8backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 69.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 69.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 62c | 67.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…c8ddbacked Yes | 17c | 65.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 54.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 34c | 54.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 52.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 49.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 59c | 48.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 47.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 22c | 47.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…7ff3backed Yes | 30c | 45.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 65c | 44.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 44c | 42.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 41c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 54c | 34.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 61c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 79c | 31.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 65c | 28.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 60c | 26.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 60c | 26.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…745fbacked No | 75c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 68c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 71c | 23.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed No | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 59c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 58c | 18.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 78c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.