Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c21d6e07971ad46a37bacfb518ecb612a5aa782b1eba22734ecf63c759c9b92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana Grizzliesof Idaho State Bengals, Montana Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Idaho State Bengals | 27c | 775.63$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Montana Grizzlies | 76c | 300.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Montana Grizzlies | 74c | 180.11$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Montana Grizzlies | 78c | 175.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…1befbacked Idaho State Bengals | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 63c | 129.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Idaho State Bengals | 37c | 125.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Idaho State Bengals | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 64c | 94.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana Grizzlies | 72c | 81.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 79c | 81.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Idaho State Bengals | 29c | 80.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Montana Grizzlies | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 24c | 66.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana Grizzlies | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Idaho State Bengals | 25c | 51.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Idaho State Bengals | 24c | 50.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Idaho State Bengals | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Montana Grizzlies | 68c | 43.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 299 | 54.2%162 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Idaho State Bengals | 39c | 37.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 35c | 34.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed Montana Grizzlies | 78c | 26.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana Grizzliesthis page
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 149.5Under won
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 152.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.