Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Winter Bear (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c2fc641e9f8706520993f78e79903da626a12fd9fc8f12f2bf4779833cfeb75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Winter Bearof Team Lynx, Winter Bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Team Lynx | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Lynx | 15c | 586.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Team Lynx | 9c | 404.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…6333backed Winter Bear | 53c | 260$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Lynx | 39c | 239.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Team Lynx | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Team Lynx | 69c | 186.35$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Winter Bear | 78c | 185.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Winter Bear | 66c | 181.48$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Team Lynx | 58c | 164.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Team Lynx | 35c | 150.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Team Lynx | 33c | 136.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…37e3backed Winter Bear | 71c | 126.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…e79fbacked Winter Bear | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Winter Bear | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Lynx | 18c | 99.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Team Lynx | 18c | 93.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Winter Bear | 35c | 92.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Winter Bear | 57c | 92.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed Winter Bear | 76c | 90.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Team Lynx | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…3120backed Team Lynx | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Team Lynx | 37c | 76.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe214…4c89backed Winter Bear | 69c | 65.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb0…2a7fbacked Winter Bear | 50c | 62.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Winter Bear | 42c | 61.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…1299backed Winter Bear | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…80ddbacked Team Lynx | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Winter Bear | 76c | 39.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Team Lynx | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…6b9ebacked Team Lynx | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Winter Bear | 73c | 34.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Winter Bear | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Team Lynx | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…97b2backed Winter Bear | 66c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…d717backed Winter Bear | 48c | 21.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Winter Bear | 55c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…375ebacked Team Lynx | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Winter Bear (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Winter Bear - Game 3 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Winter Bear - Game 4 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.