Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c3e32e225f8ecb4deaa26fbe787233cf36af63bef5847d9f274608fd4d3768c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wrexham AFCof Nottingham Forest FC, Wrexham AFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wrexham AFC | 71c | 2,530$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.29 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 28c | 1,260$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.57 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 23c | 1,250$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.09 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Wrexham AFC | 74c | 608.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 52c | 384$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…15eebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 28c | 341.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 20c | 261.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Wrexham AFC | 72c | 231.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 5c | 226.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Wrexham AFC | 72c | 47.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Wrexham AFC | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Wrexham AFC | 72c | 24.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Wrexham AFC | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…4b9fbacked Wrexham AFC | 73c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Wrexham AFC | 72c | 15.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Wrexham AFC | 72c | 15.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)this page
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.