Premier League · resolved market
Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda742ebc4a3bf189d31cd98ea18f3302ed9016810297b3b5adf96fee15ab0997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 75c | 1,338$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 31c | 933.75$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.75 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 864.44$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 644.15$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.34 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 616.98$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 53c | 290$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 35c | 215.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 53c | 200.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 177.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Over | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 79c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 29c | 104.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Over | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 47c | 83.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 35c | 82.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Over | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 46c | 75.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 62.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…7937backed Under | 50c | 58.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…6779backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Under | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…ffb3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 54c | 35.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…4cf4backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…69abbacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Wrexham AFC won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.