Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c45908d6660e94edc3193b9d7a18ec6541c9ae21daed8e190fe6293a6414c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 0c | 41,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…3d8cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 5c | 3,032$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 2c | 1,246$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…598abacked No | 1c | 1,144$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 553.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 18c | 398.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 21c | 188.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 123.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked No | 26c | 115.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 10c | 114.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 64c | 112.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 13c | 87.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 16c | 71.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 69.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 22c | 65.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 64c | 63.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 51.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 51.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 30c | 46.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 70c | 44.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…b7fcbacked No | 24c | 40.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 69c | 40.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 72c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 68c | 33.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 70c | 33.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 58c | 30.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 48c | 27.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 69c | 26.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 60c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 74c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…a952backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.