MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c46d9166dc75301ebff94f6a33bf5a19bfa1e5e02a3b8efa17f88d31c791cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 41,331$11,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,574.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…b33cbacked Under | 72c | 38,462$27,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,823.51 | 260 | 56.9%148 W · 112 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 46c | 29,415$13,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,530.77 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 54c | 10,850$5,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,991 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 54c | 9,123$4,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,196.74 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 6,381$3,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.08 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…3992backed Under | 71c | 5,128$3,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.56 | 156 | 59%92 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Under | 54c | 2,739$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.94 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 47c | 2,375$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.25 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 1,382$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 914.28$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Under | 54c | 666.67$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.67 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 601.95$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 54c | 549.3$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.68 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 33c | 396.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 360$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 26c | 337.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 295.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…4ee0backed Over | 47c | 242.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 59c | 184.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 125.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 54c | 114.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 41c | 102.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 47c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…4db7backed Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…e307backed Over | 33c | 67.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Over | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Under | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…a37fbacked Over | 47c | 36.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…b2a3backed Over | 38c | 26.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b49abacked Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.