TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,551
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,551 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafc4…daa1backed Under3c2,877$88 inLost-$87.543511.4%4 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under2c1,985$40 inLost-$39.69498.2%4 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+173.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over53c1,309$690 inWon+$619.3411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under44c1,200$528 inLost-$5285,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under80c717.37$572 inLost-$571.9612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under77c567.5$437 inLost-$436.974,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under53c566.03$300 inLost-$299.992,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over23c331.76$76 inWon+$255.464,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3449…abdfbacked Over23c320.91$74 inWon+$247.18624.4%21 W · 65 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over20c309$62 inWon+$2476,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under57c306.38$173 inLost-$173.483,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over21c209.99$44 inWon+$165.521,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over23c195.14$45 inWon+$150.268,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Under18c152.69$27 inLost-$26.754829.2%14 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over22c104.86$23 inWon+$81.7967444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Under78c100$78 inLost-$7821149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Over61c98.1$60 inWon+$38.130963.1%195 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over21c95.13$20 inWon+$75.1597050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over21c62$13 inWon+$48.981,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under53c60.21$32 inLost-$31.862,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under32c41.8$14 inLost-$13.525,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Over47c26.3$12 inWon+$13.9413353.4%71 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under75c16$12 inLost-$121,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over69c15.39$11 inWon+$4.7777353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.