MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e566c6dc0503679eb9e32765cf4ae35948b6ed538eaeb0ed21842c2fc5c8d89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 57c | 17,512$9,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,530.37 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 43c | 8,758$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,766 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 3,079$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 43c | 2,784$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 43c | 1,625$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.75 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 1,193$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 945.97$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 695.04$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 43c | 646.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.21 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 57c | 509.98$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 43c | 375.7$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 312.29$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…6b56backed Under | 43c | 233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 158.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 39c | 127.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 65c | 105.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 62c | 95.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 56c | 57.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 26c | 53.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Under | 41c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 27.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.