MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89a4e8d1d66a5fd77fb517e29118c5f0c8d418b758054f700b69e7e72663e9af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,384$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.48 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 53c | 745.79$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.52 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 55c | 525$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 58c | 483.41$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.41 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 285.39$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 57c | 175.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 42c | 159.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 69c | 156$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Yes | 44c | 113.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked No | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 43c | 94.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 55c | 81.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 69c | 69.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 43c | 60.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 45c | 47.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 57c | 42.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 43c | 39.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsthis page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.