South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6654ebc37ce5b2664fc3151bec2ca70c1b3efd157b58308f88877d5ae4e218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Yes | 38c | 41,737$15,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,860.03 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 37,640$23,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,303.88 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 12c | 12,566$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 7,691$5,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.16 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 11c | 4,562$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.64 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 1,897$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 39c | 1,235$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 1,127$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 62c | 1,086$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.55 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 62c | 977.2$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.34 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…3303backed Yes | 15c | 891.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…37ccbacked Yes | 39c | 697$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.83 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…8cb3backed Yes | 35c | 556.58$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 38c | 506.74$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 62c | 416.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.97 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 38c | 380.05$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 35c | 331.74$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…53ebbacked No | 64c | 253.77$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 61c | 231.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Yes | 5c | 206$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…06fcbacked Yes | 12c | 154.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…1683backed Yes | 39c | 124.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed No | 62c | 122.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 34c | 112.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 111.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…b7a6backed Yes | 36c | 106.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…a012backed Yes | 18c | 105.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 61c | 103.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 65c | 88.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 12c | 86.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 21c | 86.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…ffc9backed Yes | 35c | 82.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 35c | 82.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Yes | 38c | 81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 40c | 78.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 39c | 74.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…69d4backed Yes | 15c | 69.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…79f3backed Yes | 39c | 67.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 66.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe32…0300backed Yes | 41c | 63.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 59c | 63.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 67c | 58.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 70c | 55.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 21c | 52.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes | 39c | 51.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 59c | 51.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…8f4fbacked Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f919backed Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…2c85backed Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 37c | 48.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Yes | 39c | 46.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…0afcbacked Yes | 38c | 43.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed No | 65c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 62c | 37.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 118 | 63.6%75 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…e43abacked Yes | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…c173backed Yes | 39c | 34.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…4a79backed No | 60c | 31.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed No | 62c | 31.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…f3d9backed Yes | 42c | 28.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 62c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed No | 62c | 23.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…1e21backed No | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 58c | 21.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked No | 75c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.