CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c736ff0b5a00cfaaae5f85de4972a4642fbca037fcbc896891cc20775b173dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluxoof Fluxo, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Keyd | 36c | 2,338$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.75 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fluxo | 58c | 1,758$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.21 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fluxo | 67c | 1,129$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.19 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Keyd | 38c | 926.06$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.57 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Fluxo | 59c | 843.4$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.01 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Keyd | 38c | 749.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keyd | 47c | 698.93$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.36 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Keyd | 28c | 582.26$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 390 | 38.5%150 W · 240 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Keyd | 54c | 499.82$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.84 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Fluxo | 55c | 461$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.29 | 187 | 53.5%100 W · 87 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Fluxo | 60c | 458$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.16 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Fluxo | 24c | 266.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.96 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Keyd | 39c | 199.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Keyd | 34c | 193.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Keyd | 67c | 150.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Fluxo | 60c | 127.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Fluxo | 58c | 124.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 271 | 56.8%154 W · 117 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fluxo | 52c | 123.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Fluxo | 50c | 119.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Keyd | 48c | 112.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…1095backed Keyd | 70c | 84.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fluxo | 60c | 74.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Fluxo | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Fluxo | 60c | 55.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Fluxo | 62c | 54.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…99febacked Keyd | 63c | 53.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…140dbacked Fluxo | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e9…bf34backed Keyd | 33c | 46.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Fluxo | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Fluxo | 58c | 33.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Fluxo | 60c | 32.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fluxo | 71c | 31.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…5e36backed Fluxo | 69c | 31.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 239 | 56.5%135 W · 104 L | +15.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Fluxo | 61c | 27.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Fluxo | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 241 | 52.3%126 W · 115 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Fluxo | 68c | 20.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Fluxo | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 281 | 73%205 W · 76 L | +21.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…bd96backed Fluxo | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 PlayoffsFluxo won
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 WinnerFluxo won
- Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)Fluxo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.