CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9aa91d69b6a706b238e3e3c8c874d8516c1eed775eedcaae35974c25d71e120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluxoof Fluxo, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Keyd | 39c | 2,817$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.73 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…e642backed Keyd | 12c | 1,449$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed Keyd | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…6a81backed Fluxo | 62c | 898.09$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.27 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Keyd | 46c | 823.89$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.89 | 219 | 47.5%104 W · 115 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd | 27c | 689.11$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…ef1dbacked Fluxo | 62c | 667.5$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.65 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…e868backed Fluxo | 62c | 621.11$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Keyd | 38c | 529.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fluxo | 63c | 499.61$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Fluxo | 63c | 442$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.54 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…90fcbacked Fluxo | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Keyd | 37c | 396.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Keyd | 38c | 345.13$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Fluxo | 63c | 339.54$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…6532backed Fluxo | 56c | 323.72$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…50e2backed Keyd | 53c | 308.47$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Keyd | 11c | 281.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fluxo | 52c | 267.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Fluxo | 64c | 249.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keyd | 19c | 237.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…2ec9backed Keyd | 48c | 227.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab10…b659backed Keyd | 11c | 225.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Fluxo | 70c | 218.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3812…e4b0backed Keyd | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fluxo | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Fluxo | 63c | 195.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fluxo | 80c | 187.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Fluxo | 70c | 172.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 281 | 73%205 W · 76 L | +21.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Fluxo | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 488 | 51.8%253 W · 235 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed Keyd | 36c | 165$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked Fluxo | 64c | 164.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Fluxo | 57c | 152.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Fluxo | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Keyd | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…92f6backed Keyd | 37c | 139.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked Keyd | 27c | 116.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Keyd | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed Keyd | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 470 | 54%254 W · 216 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Keyd | 34c | 105.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 256 | 43.4%111 W · 145 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Keyd | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Fluxo | 52c | 99.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Keyd | 38c | 90.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Fluxo | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 260 | 48.5%126 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Fluxo | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 317 | 31.9%101 W · 216 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…4a99backed Keyd | 29c | 85.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 297 | 31%92 W · 205 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Fluxo | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Keyd | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Keyd | 39c | 76.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 256 | 50.4%129 W · 127 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Fluxo | 65c | 70.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Keyd | 45c | 69.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5575…c56dbacked Fluxo | 45c | 64.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Fluxo | 62c | 60.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 203 | 53.2%108 W · 95 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Fluxo | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Fluxo | 48c | 55.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 609 | 54%329 W · 280 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Fluxo | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Keyd | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 264 | 48.1%127 W · 137 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…0747backed Fluxo | 61c | 48.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Fluxo | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fluxo | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…1160backed Keyd | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 414 | 37%153 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Keyd | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 858 | 51.6%443 W · 415 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Keyd | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Fluxo | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Fluxo | 65c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 587 | 45.5%267 W · 320 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed Fluxo | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fluxo | 65c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Keyd | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…f2f8backed Fluxo | 64c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Fluxo | 60c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerFluxo won
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 WinnerFluxo won
- Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)Fluxo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.