CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02c10f74631e73db6328751008feb4f87e5731c4317ba85021d339e81d7e5ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluxoof Fluxo, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Fluxo | 77c | 1,208$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.63 | 1,041 | 53.1%553 W · 488 L | +63.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Keyd | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 171 | 62%106 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Keyd | 16c | 743.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…a3e1backed Fluxo | 64c | 677$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.47 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Fluxo | 73c | 648.22$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Keyd | 38c | 629.42$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.97 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keyd | 18c | 541.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 1,431 | 39%558 W · 873 L | -41.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Keyd | 20c | 505$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Keyd | 36c | 485$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Keyd | 44c | 457.43$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Keyd | 27c | 418.66$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…6c34backed Fluxo | 77c | 401.58$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Keyd | 19c | 319.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Fluxo | 70c | 279.54$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 281 | 73%205 W · 76 L | +21.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Keyd | 24c | 278.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 1,659 | 32.7%542 W · 1,117 L | -49.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Keyd | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Keyd | 24c | 210$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd | 20c | 186.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Keyd | 21c | 160.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Fluxo | 66c | 157.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Keyd | 23c | 155.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed Keyd | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Keyd | 26c | 129.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Keyd | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 873 | 51.2%447 W · 426 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Keyd | 22c | 96.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Keyd | 17c | 74.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 364 | 34.1%124 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Keyd | 21c | 71.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,325 | 44.1%584 W · 741 L | +44.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…bd96backed Fluxo | 77c | 60.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6933…7ea3backed Fluxo | 77c | 46.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…99febacked Keyd | 38c | 38.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Fluxo | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Fluxo | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Fluxo | 68c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 231 | 61.5%142 W · 89 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…cc9bbacked Fluxo | 76c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 PlayoffsFluxo won
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerFluxo won
- Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)Fluxo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.