Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $18B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7997a0ef0d7aa9ed4e3c450740006a650fa2076975c73d34b1d56407778a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 34c | 766.19$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 49c | 326.01$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 56c | 172.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…901abacked Yes | 56c | 85.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 79.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 73c | 60.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a5…3365backed Yes | 56c | 47.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 61c | 43.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 57c | 28.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 20.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $18B?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $19B?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $20B?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $22B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.