Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $19B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb5abc176b2b1853b00d63de9aff367d31034df90803d910cca7fecd34c9de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 25c | 191$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 51c | 127.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 67c | 70.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 51.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 61c | 45.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed Yes | 58c | 37.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8177backed Yes | 68c | 37.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb742…51debacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $19B?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $18B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $20B?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $22B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.