Mls · resolved market
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c8a11ee6ff7bcbeda08f67efc331080af5e943fa41521537547b2ebdfa9b612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego FCof Real Salt Lake, San Diego FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Real Salt Lake | 20c | 2,915$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.66 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed San Diego FC | 75c | 1,281$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.48 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego FC | 80c | 465$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego FC | 52c | 464.05$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.79 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Real Salt Lake | 36c | 440$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…3248backed Real Salt Lake | 10c | 399.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Real Salt Lake | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Real Salt Lake | 60c | 251.45$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Real Salt Lake | 11c | 133.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego FC | 40c | 123.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego FC | 46c | 102.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Real Salt Lake | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked San Diego FC | 22c | 82.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked San Diego FC | 22c | 82.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed San Diego FC | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego FC | 46c | 62.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed San Diego FC | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed San Diego FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked San Diego FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego FC | 39c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Real Salt Lake | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed San Diego FC | 80c | 28.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked San Diego FC | 43c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked San Diego FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.