Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a728e25c145f7fad1a4249a47781e091304cb988b34cada372ac12bf0aa9e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 68c | 1,029$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.32 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 70c | 600.93$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 31c | 514.84$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 399.57$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 256.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 29c | 170.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 164$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 75c | 133.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 42c | 125$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Over | 72c | 91.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 74c | 67.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 74c | 63.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 32c | 62.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 53.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 32c | 44.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d22…403ebacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 31c | 38.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 32c | 32.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Under | 35c | 28.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb4…5071backed Over | 75c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.