Mls · resolved market

Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb394f930208243bd17287618b99a7cb7803b3721d196cf057941d1ad82b55b9a

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Real Salt Lakeof Real Salt Lake, San Diego FC
Resolved: Apr 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $177,521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $178,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,521 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Real Salt Lake	42c	168,029$70,770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97,259.32	156	47.4%74 W · 82 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed San Diego FC	58c	112,556$65,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65,126.13	238	58%138 W · 100 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed San Diego FC	58c	16,378$9,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,499.13	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed San Diego FC	57c	5,263$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,999.91	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked San Diego FC	58c	5,243$3,028 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,027.79	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed San Diego FC	57c	5,000$2,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,860	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego FC	59c	4,070$2,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,398.22	130	53.1%69 W · 61 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed San Diego FC	58c	3,946$2,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,275.2	477	48.2%230 W · 247 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego FC	59c	2,649$1,555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,554.95	3,018	43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L	-28.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked San Diego FC	57c	2,487$1,428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,427.68	976	46.2%451 W · 525 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed San Diego FC	58c	2,201$1,270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,270.06	429	47.1%202 W · 227 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked San Diego FC	57c	1,211$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.49	559	50.3%281 W · 278 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed San Diego FC	57c	1,211$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.49	687	50.7%348 W · 339 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed San Diego FC	58c	1,211$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702	917	53.1%487 W · 430 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked San Diego FC	67c	1,100$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.96	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.26per pick	49cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed San Diego FC	59c	1,067$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.26	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed San Diego FC	57c	701.75$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	98	54.1%53 W · 45 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego FC	58c	630$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.09	130	46.2%60 W · 70 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Real Salt Lake	33c	606.05$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.05	79	49.4%39 W · 40 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego FC	58c	555.57$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.87	580	43.6%253 W · 327 L	-12.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed San Diego FC	59c	504$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.36	206	48.5%100 W · 106 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3d…33e9backed San Diego FC	71c	477.71$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xece6…c4bfbacked Real Salt Lake	34c	470$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.2	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+119.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked San Diego FC	58c	461$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.3	139	48.9%68 W · 71 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed San Diego FC	59c	379.1$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.9	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-7.0wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed San Diego FC	66c	356.27$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego FC	53c	299.99$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	393	34.6%136 W · 257 L	-46.8wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Real Salt Lake	45c	295.84$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.71	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+51.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked San Diego FC	58c	295.63$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.97	107	55.1%59 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed San Diego FC	59c	275.99$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.21	1,306	51.2%669 W · 637 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked San Diego FC	58c	187.74$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.05	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Real Salt Lake	49c	183.98$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.21	164	53%87 W · 77 L	+20.7wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+40%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed San Diego FC	75c	164$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	68cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed San Diego FC	59c	162.5$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.36	154	58.4%90 W · 64 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed San Diego FC	59c	162.5$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.36	122	54.1%66 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed San Diego FC	57c	158.77$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.5	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed San Diego FC	61c	131.15$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed San Diego FC	67c	125.44$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.23	705	49.8%351 W · 354 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Real Salt Lake	43c	103.49$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.49	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed San Diego FC	57c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	259	34.4%89 W · 170 L	-28.1wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Real Salt Lake	40c	85$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	62	64.5%40 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed San Diego FC	58c	80$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	61cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego FC	30c	65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	926	46.7%432 W · 494 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Real Salt Lake	45c	64.1$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.46	249	20.9%52 W · 197 L	-19.4wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Real Salt Lake	44c	56.51$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.65	48	62.5%30 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ff…8164backed Real Salt Lake	27c	55.56$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.56	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed San Diego FC	59c	53.8$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.62	89	34.8%31 W · 58 L	-16.6wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed San Diego FC	60c	52$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked San Diego FC	59c	51$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	-7.8wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e7a…2c0abacked San Diego FC	76c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	65cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdba8…5d91backed Real Salt Lake	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb29a…bbdebacked Real Salt Lake	37c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed San Diego FC	58c	43.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	-7.4wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Real Salt Lake	25c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	165	31.5%52 W · 113 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f8…2e4cbacked Real Salt Lake	55c	39.6$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.82	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.37per pick	38cpaid	+132.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Real Salt Lake	43c	38.97$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.21	360	51.9%187 W · 173 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed San Diego FC	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Real Salt Lake	43c	34.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Real Salt Lake	45c	33.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Real Salt Lake	35c	32.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.42	222	63.1%140 W · 82 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Real Salt Lake	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked San Diego FC	58c	28.31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Real Salt Lake	43c	25.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.83	122	54.9%67 W · 55 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Real Salt Lake	46c	23.31$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.53	37	67.6%25 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed San Diego FC	61c	20.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	248	59.3%147 W · 101 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed San Diego FC	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08d1…28adbacked San Diego FC	58c	19.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb1…cddbbacked San Diego FC	61c	19.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b74…1e21backed San Diego FC	59c	16.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x654d…ba8fbacked San Diego FC	70c	14.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)this page
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event