TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Real Salt Lakeof San Diego FC, Real Salt Lake
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,918 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b5d…fc3dbacked Real Salt Lake49c214.95$105 inWon+$109.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x305e…61f7backed Real Salt Lake49c213.82$105 inWon+$109.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…915abacked Real Salt Lake49c211.56$104 inWon+$107.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf3…a6d4backed Real Salt Lake49c210.41$103 inWon+$107.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf337…980dbacked Real Salt Lake49c209.87$103 inWon+$107.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8635…03a8backed Real Salt Lake49c208.54$102 inWon+$106.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…fb69backed Real Salt Lake49c204.34$100 inWon+$104.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x824d…e7b8backed Real Salt Lake49c203.72$100 inWon+$103.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd70…b4b4backed Real Salt Lake49c203.37$100 inWon+$103.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce3…193dbacked Real Salt Lake49c202.61$99 inWon+$103.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5501…aff8backed Real Salt Lake49c202.1$99 inWon+$103.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c1…bfc4backed Real Salt Lake49c198.6$97 inWon+$101.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de0…bcb4backed Real Salt Lake49c198.01$97 inWon+$100.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d62…6c73backed Real Salt Lake49c195.82$96 inWon+$99.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd9…a7f9backed Real Salt Lake49c193.19$95 inWon+$98.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.