NHL · resolved market
Canucks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1caaf2fcbf6b6f185d1a8733fb62da8d6fc7359f2dba5d3c6fafddf4ab0321dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 2,222$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.31 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 56c | 1,509$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.89 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 55c | 643.18$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 45c | 548.34$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.59 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 44c | 459.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 452.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.27 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 56c | 439.29$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 294.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 56c | 207.57$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 56c | 205.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 153.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 45c | 136$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 122.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 90.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 45c | 75.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 30c | 54.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 36c | 38.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 45c | 35.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 34.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 55c | 18.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canucks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5this page
- Canucks vs. BlackhawksCanucks won
- Canucks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canucks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canucks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)Canucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.