Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cbe69a965851e7f98020b40bd35149f899fde50914ed1f9f91bd1f5575d0216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd090…3bc5backed Yes | 2c | 5,093$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe820…9f12backed Yes | 4c | 1,261$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 64c | 528.74$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.71 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 36c | 334.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 61c | 295.12$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.97 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 36c | 243.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 168.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 143.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 132.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 70c | 127.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 126.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 126.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 51c | 111.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 37c | 107.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 58c | 104.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 100.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…71fcbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 99.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 99.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 95.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 39c | 84.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 84.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 69.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 68c | 61.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 61.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 55c | 61.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 52.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 44c | 48.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…4fc4backed Yes | 64c | 46.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 44.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…b6a4backed No | 29c | 41.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 39c | 38.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 38c | 37.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 35.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757e…8128backed No | 41c | 29.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 54c | 27.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 46c | 27.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 49c | 27.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 26.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 50c | 26.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 68c | 22.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…4856backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 59c | 21.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 54c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 52c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 19.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.