Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d93ac269f20f4ffe460e1777b5fc0694f1efe7279a88063168615a4dd9fa35c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 45c | 227.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 147.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 145.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 21c | 141.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.55 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 79c | 135$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 134.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 133.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 126.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 116.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 20c | 115.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 112.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 24c | 109.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 105.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 79c | 103.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 22c | 78.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 73.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 71.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 69c | 69.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 68.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 40c | 58.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 65c | 58.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 49.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 45.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 44.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 42.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 79c | 37.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 35.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 35.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 32.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 78c | 29.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 29.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 27.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…fdd9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 24.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 19.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.